Saturday, September 23, 2017

Economic News , Data & Views....September 23 , 2017....Quick Hits For Saturday -1) Markets - Q2- Z1 Report Analysis From Doug Noland & His Weekly Round Up Of Pertinent News & Data , Rampaging US Stocks Accompanied By Least Volatile September In History , US Treasury Yield Curve Keeps Flattening As Odds Of December Fed Rate Hike Creep Up , Global Stocks Follow US Stocks Trend Of " Moving On Up ". 2) Spain : Catalonia Updates - Catalan Police Taken Over By Central Gov't ; Judge Investigating Sedition Charges Against Barcelona Rally Organizers Is Former Franco Police Inspector ; Catalan Gov't Remains Unbowed To Central Gov't Pressures And Moves To Halt Independence Referendum. 3) Hurricane Maria Updates - Maria Late Westward Movement Brings US East Coast Into Play , Warnings Discontinued For Bahamas & Turks And Caicos , Maria Expected To Make A Northward Turn Sunday And Spin Out Over The Atlantic But Not Threaten Mainland US. 4) North Korea Updates : Usual North Korean Style Insult Regime Against POTUS ; Early Earthquake In North Korea Attributed To Natural And Not Man-Made Causes - No New Nuclear Test By The North. 5) Syria - Focus On Deir Ezzor Governorate Front State Of Play. 6) Libya Political & Domestic Concerns & Refugee/Ayslum Seeker Matters. 7) US Politics Round Up For Saturday !




Global Markets....





As always , good Missive from Doug Noland , as well as his look back at the week that was !




With 1 week to go, S&P 500 on pace for 11th straight up month, 18 out of past 19 months. The new Money Market.




The last 9 trading days have been the most peaceful days in the history of markets. 0.28% avg intraday range.




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The calmest September on record also qualified as one the calmest months on record...



The Volatility Index has averaged 10.63 so far this month, on pace for the least volatile September in history.




US Yield curve ends the week near its flattest level of the expansion: 80 bps spread b/t 10-yr & 2-yr yields.




US Yield curve ends the week near its flattest level of the expansion: 80 bps spread b/t 10-yr & 2-yr yields.





Odds of a December rate hike move up from 58% to 73% after the FOMC meeting. A month ago they were at 34%.






1 hour ago
Highest weekly closes in history for... S&P 500 Dow Jones Industrial Average Russell 2000 NYSE Composite Global Dow




Global stocks hit another high this wk, enjoyed reflation themed rally in wake of hawkish Fed. Now worth >$84tn, equals to 110% of glob GDP.




Spain....




Dockworkers in two ports staging a boycott and a third refuses access. Interestingly - The Times , Le Monde & NYT support Referendum.




Defiance across the board...





Catalan Parliament backs Catalan Police...





Catalan Police not going to cede its powers....





Normal programming canceled after Regional Gov't Police announcement...




Catalan Gov't Interior Minister reacts to Central Gov't move to control Catalonia Police.




Catalan Gov't decries attempt by Central Gov't to take over self- government of Catalonia & refuse to turn over control of Catalan Police.




Central Gov't claims it has taken over control of Catalan Police.




Further details on Catalonia Police takeover....




Sedition charges against Barcelona protesters update....




Maria.....



NHC confirms westward shift in track , warns some direct impacts likely along portions of EC - coastal carolinas and mid-atlantic on notice.






HEADS UP - If living in areas between South Carolina & Maryland , Hurricane Maria "may" impact East Coast after westward track shift -ECMWF.





Fwiw - shows track shift westward - again , this is ECMWF ensemble , not GFS ensemble,







Something to watch....






Dam failure video...






Bloomberg- "One hundred percent of the system run by the Puerto Rico Power Authority is offline, because Maria damaged every part of it."






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"Thousands Could Die" Puerto Rico Scrambles To Evacuate River Valley As Dam Fails





GFS/EURO ensembles trending west compared to yesterday regarding . 2nd U.S. landfall still in play next week.





Hurricane Advisory 29: Warnings Discontinued For the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.




Flash Flood Warning/Aviso de Inundaciones Repentinas extended/extendido 800 AM para/for el oeste Quebradillas & el este Isabela.
Translated from Spanish by 
Flash Flood Warning/Notice of flashfloods extended / extended 800 AM to / for Quebradillas West & eastern Isabela.





Here are the key messages on for advisory 28. Swells likely to begin affecting the southeast US coast this weekend.




North Korea....



Ri said NK won't hesitate to take preemptive action if any sign of decapitation strike or military attack detected.




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Commander in Grief, Pres Evil. The danger is that a gambler who grew old using threats & fraud to acquire a patch of land holds nuke button"





When US, UN sanctions reach a critical point, "will hold those accountable," warns Ri in his address to .




BREAKING: North Korea minister says Trump's insult makes `our rocket's visit to the entire US mainland inevitable all the more.'




Foreign Min. Ri at : South Korea and Japan are "stooges."
 




If attacked by US we will take action but we won't attack those who don't join the Americans, says Ri.



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FM at says is a responsible nuclear weapons state, and "nuclear force is a righteous self defense measure"




Ouch......






Hmmm , that seems to qualify as a direct threat. Another high moment from UNGA...



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North Korea is defending itself against US threats.




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FM "Trump is mentally deranged and full of megalomania."



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He carries onto say that Trump is "gravest threat to international peace and security today."



"No one other than Trump is on a suicide mission."




bombers, fighters fly in international airspace east of , farthest north of the DMZ in 21st century


 




Today's show of force....





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North Korea declare that the US "should be totally destroyed and wiped off the surface of our planet."




North Korea settling back into the usual and sundry insult game....





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Worldwide nuclear monitoring agency CTBTO says analysts have detected two seismic activities in North Korea which are unlikely to be manmade




North Korean government official "North earthquake, it is not nuclear test"




China Curbs Oil Product Exports to North Korea, Bans Condensate




Start 1 Jan>Worried by Pyongyang's nuclear and missile tests, will restrict oil exports to




Two Events! 0829UTC & much smaller @ 0443UTC unlikely Man-made! Similar to "collapse" event 8.5 mins after DPRK6! Analysis ongoing








S.Korea: Earthquake was natural China: Earthquake was caused by artificial explosion U.S.: No confirmation yet




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China's CENC seismic service detects zero-depth, 3.4-magnitude earthquake in , calling it a "suspected explosion"




China tells Japan not to abandon dialogue over North Korea






Syria....




Islamic State pocket completely captured by the Syrian Arab Army Map:






1 hour ago
Syrian Democratic Forces captured al-Asbah farms - north of Kusham Map:




Syrian Army liberated Madan and met with other SAA forces in South of Al Jaber in




Libya....




1 hour ago





Unity Govt FM Siyala meets w/ Saudi FM Adel al-Jubeir at the meeting of the Int'l Coalition Against Terrorism









FM Lavrov meets with Fayez Serraj in New York, says welcomes the outcome of the Paris meeting.





's Energy Minister invites Mustafa Sanalla to attend Energy Forum in Moscow.




5 days adrift n what's supposed to b most heavily monitored part of 's coast-why wait until too late b4 rescue?Who made that decision?









Heartbreaking images of the car which was hit by random shell due to the on-going clashes in & killed an entire family







US Politics....





FBI stonewalling on "Dossier" & FBI reports “incorporating, relying on, or referring to” info given by Steele, his sources, or Fusion GPS.





NEW: Five highlights from Trump's bombastic Alabama rally










McCarthy: Dems’ Attempts To Spin Messaging On DACA Deal Is ‘Not Healthy’





Trump objected Friday morning to the fresh attention being paid to the Russia investigation. via




Trump aides pleaded with him not to insult Kim Jong Un in UN speech: report



JUST IN: NFL commissioner: Trump's "divisive comments" show a "lack of respect" for NFL






Trump: Wouldn’t you love to see NFL owners fire protesting players?






1 hour ago
Trump to NFL owners: If a player kneels during anthem, "get that son of a bitch off the field"





1 hour ago
Iran successfully tests new ballistic missile





1 hour ago
Government notifies 21 states that they were targets of Russian election hacking




1 hour ago
JUST IN: Trump withdraws Steph Curry's White House invitation after he says he's not coming





1 hour ago
Trump Treasury Secretary under investigation for using military jet to fly from NYC to DC: report








Trump Still Dangling Oil Sanctions Over Maduro’s Head





Painkiller Addiction In America Is Devastating Life Expectancy For Adults




Trump To Award Vietnam Veteran With Medal Of Honor 47 Years After Secret Mission





Entire Island Of Puerto Rico Plunged Into 16th Century Darkness



Odds & Ends....



LIVE: FM Jubeir at : 's support for terrorism has destabilized the region




Meanwhile...




LATEST — PM Yıldırım meets opposition CHP, MHP party leaders during break at extraordinary parliamentary sesssion




Turkey's parliament approved extending a mandate permitting deployment of troops to Iraq and Syria.




delegation 2Baghdad back in after having told Baghdad referendum is on time & door 2dialogue open on 9/26.





There were no talks held , heck - PM Abadi didn't even meet the Kurdish Delegation. Baghdad basically threatened to drop the hammer.




1. Various PUK departments have released conflicting statements on referendum, some in support, and others call to postpone the vote




2. First, Pafel Talabani, released a statement saying KDP-PUK agreed to US-backed alternative. later said statement was published by mistake





3. Then KDP, High referendum Council both denied they accepted any alternative, saying they insist on September 25 date for the vote vote





4. A statement by executive head of PUK,Mala Bakhtiyar, said they want to consider alternative,and have conveyed this to KDP, and P. Barzani





5. A statement by office of PUK organizations said that they want Erbil to consider the US-backed alternative, and call to "postpone" vote





6. PUK's spokesperson, Saddi Pira. described all such statements as propaganda, insists that the vote goes ahead in Kurdistan, Kirkuk





7. PUK's office in Kirkuk said in a statement that the situation in Kirkuk is not ready for referendum,and the vote may not take place there





8. Kirkuk governor, from PUK, denied vote will not take place in Kirkuk saying preparations are made, and called on people to head to polls




BREAKING: President Barzani tells French ambassador that it is too late to postpone referendum, vote will take pace on Monday, Sept. 25




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mentions imprisoned U.S. pastor & in the same sentence. There are rumors that he's pursuing a swap deal.




Reza Zarrab: Erdogan’s Ticking Bomb