Doug Noland's Weekly Missive and compendium of global news & data !
In spite of various missteps-S&P has gained 5.32% in Trump's first 100 days-on top of 5.8% since the election. Tax & infrastructure hopium?
Today is Trump's 100th day in office. At least Mr. Market has not yet lost hope in him. US stocks gained 1.3tn in mkt cap since inauguration
Silver ETF ends the week down for the 10th consecutive day, tying the record set back in 2015. $SLV
S&P 500 (total return) finishes up 1.03% in April. Now up in 13 out of the past 14 months. $SPX
Volatility Index: lowest monthly close since January 2007, 3rd lowest in history. $VIX
Russia cuts rates for the 4th time in the past year, 50 bps move to 9.25%. Global Central Bank update...
Half of those arrested in immigration raids only had traffic offenses or no record: report http://hill.cm/EXCnobJ
Bannon is back from the dead: http://hill.cm/sBD4jXF
Trump team did do a background check of Flynn, knew about ties to Turkey: report http://hill.cm/RMv6rRr
"Why the polls are wrong about Trump. Again." http://hill.cm/eEagCtv
Tillerson to cut hundreds of jobs at State Department: report http://hill.cm/5iOudiE
North Korea disrespected the wishes of China & its highly respected President when it launched, though unsuccessfully, a missile today. Bad!
Current funding would have lapsed at midnight tonight; Congress cleared the short-term bill earlier today.
Trump has signed legislation to fund govt through next Friday as lawmakers work to finish plan for funding thru fiscal year, per @justinsink
Day 99: Here's everything Trump has done so far https://bloom.bg/2qfwLhV
North Korea's missile test, fired just hours after a U.S. push for sanctions, appears to have failed https://bloom.bg/2oR8WIr
France, Ipsos exit poll 18-24 yrs Mélenchon: 30% Le Pen: 21% Macron: 18% Hamon: 10% Fillon: 9% Dupont-Aignan: 6%
France, Ipsos exit poll Men | Women Macron: 23 | 25 Le Pen: 24 | 20 Fillon: 18 | 21 Mélenchon: 21 | 17 Hamon: 4 | 8
France: Presidential election (run-off), Odoxa poll: Macron (EM-*): 59% (-4) Fillon (LR-EPP): 41% (+4)
France: Presidential election (run-off), Ifop poll: Macron (EM-*): 60% (-1) Le Pen (FN-ENF): 40% (-)
France: Presidential election (run-off), BVA poll: Macron (EM-*): 59% (-6) Le Pen (FN-ENF): 41% (+6)
Gaullist and anti-EU Nicolas Dupont Aignan has described Le Pen as 'amateurist' in the past....but he has agreed to be her PM if elected
President François Hollande says that “the choice on May 7,” the date of France’s second round vote, “is a choice on Europe”
Marine Le Pen says she would annoint the very anti-EU Gaullist sovereigntist Nicolas Dupont Aignan as her PM. He got 4.7% in first round.
Using IFOP abstention numbers, Le Pen is still short 3.2 million votes, according to our calculation. IFOP tonight sees 60/40 for Macron.
U.K. SAYS BREXIT TALKS WILL BE TOUGH AND CONFRONTATIONAL
Open Europe report on unpicking true value of EU financial services ‘passport’ & strategies for UK in upcoming Brexit talks with EU-27.
"Whatever it takes "......
Disclosures show that Trump’s former campaign chairman participated in Ukraine lobbying http://politi.co/2qhUefF
Leaving the EU without a trade deal: this is the nightmare scenario for Britain's car industry http://politi.co/2qhXHL2
Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, insists that the UK should pay the Brexit bill, saying that it would be a "considerable amount"
'No' says @Xavier_Bettel when asked whether if May was to come back with a stronger parl majority it would make a difference to EU27 #EUCO
Encouragingly, the Brexit guidelines unanimously adopted today do not fall in a category of "punitive" , per se.
Here is the text for EUCO 27 Brexit guidelines. .
#Europe: Unemployment Rate by Region in 2016 #Eurostat data 2016 https://jakubmarian.com/europe-unemployment-rate-by-region-in-2016/ … #Greece
Merkel IV: CDU/CSU - greens - FDP? Bye bye #schulzeffect
Italy's government may have to put more than the planned €6.6BN into insolvent Monte Paschi: La Stampa
Germany edges towards greater NATO role with troops in Lithuania https://www.ft.com/content/cbf1bac6-28cd-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7 … via @FT
Tusk: We need to remain united as EU 27 it's only then we'll be able to conclude negotiations our uniy is also in the UK interest #EUCO
Nationwide anti-Putin protests begin in Russia http://ow.ly/eSEW30bhKAY
How did May/Juncker meeting go? "Badly." Juncker called Merkel at 7.30am next day. Hours later Merkel attacked UK:
Odds & Ends....
Turkey Purge update....
BREAKING - Turkey blocks access to the online encyclopaedia Wikipedia.
Turkey blocks Wikipedia after Erdogan article citing Erdogan to be "a dictator" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan …
Erdogan just banned Wikipedia. Power being centralised in presidency. Opponents arrested or jailed. And FT columnist compares UK to Turkey
New State of Emergency decree bans "marriage programs" for matching conservative couples.
Here is an article discussing the two new decrees - run through Google Translate to get decent translation of piece !
14 civil society groups and Van's İpekyolu newspaper closed down by latest State of Emergency decrees
Turkish president issues 2 executive decrees, shutting down 1 newspaper, 1 magazine, 14 associations, 13 health clinics and 18 foundations.
484 academics and 98 administrative university personnel were fired.
3,939 public workers were fired.
216 health workers -- doctors, nurses, midwives -- were fired.
447 officers from Turkish Air Force were fired.
141 officers from Navy, including 13 colonels, were fired.
478 officers from Land Forces, including 1 general and 36 colonels, were fired.
44 personnel from General Staff and Defense Ministry were fired.
120 officers from Coast Guards were fired.
58 officers from Gendarmerie General Command were fired.
19 personnel from Foreign Ministry were fired.
201 imams and religious service members were fired.
28 personnel from high courts (Council of State, Supreme Court) were fired.
509 personnel from dozens of other ministries and state bodies were fired.
These fired workers were stripped of their titles, can't apply for a public job again, their passports revoked, ejected from public housing.
North Korea Conundrum...
Two guideposts from China pov: denuclearization of Korea Peninsula ; full implementation of UNSC Resolutions on NK.
Japan shuts down entire Tokyo Metro system in response to North Korea missile test http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korea-missile-test-reaction-japan-tokyo-metro-system-ballistic-nuclear-failed-a7708931.html …
South Korea presidential front-runner says North Korea's missile launch futile http://reut.rs/2qpdRS9
North Korea fails in latest test of ballistic missile http://jtim.es/vUA430bhqqz
BREAKING: North Korea test fired KN-17 intermediate range ballistic missile at 4:23 ET into Sea of Japan, US officials